Federal Reserve
FEDPaper
Econometric models beat machine learning in volatility forecasts
A Federal Reserve Board study shows targeted econometric models outperform machine learning when forecasting realized volatility.
Focus
FEDPaper
Scenario synthesis links economic narratives to risk distributions
A Federal Reserve working paper presents Scenario Synthesis, a statistical framework that connects narrative scenario analysis with predictive risk distributions.
FEDSpeech
Barr backs second-chance lending and warns on inflation path
Federal Reserve Governor Michael S. Barr called for expanding credit access and technical support for formerly incarcerated entrepreneurs at a Washington forum on September 1, 2026.
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FEDPaper
Bank balance-sheet limits drive global risk and dollar appreciation
Global financial intermediary constraints explain why U.S. uncertainty shocks increase worldwide corporate credit spreads, widen currency risk premia, and appreciate the dollar.
FEDPaper
State natural unemployment rates range from 3.3 to 7.5 percent
Federal Reserve researchers Hie Joo Ahn and Jeremy Rudd find that state-level natural unemployment rates across the United States varied between 3.3 percent and 7.5 percent from 1978 to 2025, undermining standard national assumptions in regional Phillips curve models.
FEDSpeech
Warsh targets 3.7 percent inflation and curbs forward guidance
Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh signaled a sharp focus on reducing 3.7 percent inflation while scaling back the central bank's use of forward guidance.
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FEDNews
Primary credit rate kept at 3.75 percent despite four hike requests
The Federal Reserve Board maintained the primary credit rate at 3.75 percent and the interest on reserve balances at 3.65 percent in July 2026.
FEDPaper
VIX and term spread drive shifts in conditional pricing kernel
Federal Reserve Board research introduces a semi-nonparametric framework to estimate forward-looking conditional pricing kernels using index options.
FEDPaper
Limited foresight turns optimal public debt and taxes stationary
A Federal Reserve research paper demonstrates that bounded rationality invalidates Barro's random walk hypothesis for public debt and taxes.
FEDPaper
Macro indicators drive 19 percent of structural labor slack gauge
Federal Reserve economists developed a Structural Labor Market Indicator synthesizing nine labor margins within a New Keynesian model.
FEDPaper
Occupational complexity explains four decades of U.S. wage inequality
A Federal Reserve Board paper reveals that occupational problem complexity drives U.S. wage inequality growth since 1980.
FEDPaper
Global repo volume reaches 16 trillion dollars as fragility grows
A Federal Reserve study reveals that the 16 trillion dollar global government bond repo market faces structural vulnerabilities.