Rodríguez Ceja urges digital payment adoption, reviews economic outlook
Banco de México Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja discussed the economic and inflation outlook, credit trends, and regulatory initiatives at an ABM Associates Committee dinner on February 25, 2026. She also urged banks to facilitate the adoption of simple and standardized digital payment methods.
Economic rebound meets persistent inflation
Mexico's GDP advanced in Q4 2025 after a previous quarter's decline, driven by tertiary activities and industrial reactivation, leading to a 0.6 percent expansion for the full year 2025. Private consumption continued to grow, and exports increased, supported by the T-MEC and U.S. economic dynamism, particularly in AI-related investment.
Headline inflation has remained within the 3% target's variability range since July 2025, reaching 3.92 percent in early February 2026. Core inflation stood at 4.52 percent, with services inflation declining gradually but slower than anticipated.
Merchandise inflation saw an uptick in food items in January 2026 due to fiscal adjustments on sugary drinks and cigarettes, which are expected to have a one-off impact.
Banxico cut its target rate by 25 basis points to 7.00 percent in December 2025, then paused the easing cycle in February 2026, considering the orderly exchange rate behavior and monetary policy lags.
Inflation is projected to converge to the 3 percent target in Q2 2027.
Bridging the credit gap for SMEs
Mexico's financial system remains robust, largely due to the strength of its banking sector.
However, bank credit to households and non-financial private companies remains low relative to GDP compared to countries with similar development levels.
While large companies saw credit levels in 2025 near historical highs from 2019, small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) still have balances 27 percent below their 2016 peak.
The Governor reiterated the call for banks to intensify efforts to deepen the credit market for non-financial private companies, with a particular focus on SMEs.
This expansion must be prudent, maintaining strict origination standards and risk measurement schemes to preserve financial system stability.
Consumer and housing credit growth moderated in 2025, and banks are encouraged to expand participation in these segments while managing risks, fostering financial inclusion, and contributing to economic growth.
Modernizing Mexico's financial access
The push for digital payment adoption is a critical step towards greater financial inclusion and economic efficiency in Mexico.
Despite pioneering infrastructure like SPEI, user experience simplification is paramount for broader public engagement.
Banks must commit to concrete implementation roadmaps to standardize and streamline electronic transfers, ensuring these efforts are sustainable and incorporate constant risk monitoring.
This initiative, while challenging, is essential for leveraging existing strengths and addressing the current lag in digital payment adoption among users.