ECB Wage Tracker points to stable wage pressure for 2026
The European Central Bank's updated Wage Tracker indicates stable contractual wage growth of around 2.6 percent for 2026. The forward-looking information, updated with collective agreements concluded by mid-April 2026, remains largely unchanged.
Smoothed and unsmoothed wage dynamics
The ECB's Wage Tracker, which captures ongoing collective agreements, shows a 3.2 percent increase in contractual wages for 2025 when one-off payments are smoothed (covering 51.3 percent of employees in participating countries).
For 2026, this main indicator points to a 2.3 percent rise (41.9 percent coverage).
Compared to the March 2026 data release, the smoothed Wage Tracker for 2026 remained unchanged.
When one-off payments are included unsmoothed, contractual wage growth stands at 3.0 percent for 2025 and 2.6 percent for 2026.
The tracker without one-off payments indicates a moderation from 3.8 percent in 2025 to 2.6 percent in 2026.
The smoothed tracker is better suited for describing quarterly or monthly developments, while the unsmoothed tracker better reflects annual dynamics.
Quarterly outlook and mechanical effects
For the current year, the main indicator averages 1.8 percent in Q1, 2.1 percent in Q2, and 2.6 percent for both Q3 and Q4. This expected increase in wage dynamics throughout the year is linked to the gradual fading of a mechanical downward effect, resulting from high one-off payments in 2024 not being repeated in 2025.
This mechanical effect is expected to largely disappear from the main indicator over 2026.
The highly uncertain economic situation could lead to one-off payments playing a larger role next year, though this is not yet reflected in new collective agreements concluded since March 2026.
The data period for Austria has been extended to begin in January 2013, and the forward-looking horizon will be extended to Q1 2027 with the July 2026 data release.
A tracker, not a forecast
The ECB's Wage Tracker provides valuable insights into current contractual wage developments.
However, its forward-looking component should not be interpreted as a forecast, as it only captures information from currently available collective agreements.
Furthermore, the tracker does not precisely replicate the broader indicator for contractual wage growth, implying potential deviations over time.
For a comprehensive assessment of euro area wage developments, the ECB's macroeconomic projections, which estimate annual employee compensation growth at 3.4 percent for 2026, remain the authoritative source.