Heatwaves set to cut French GDP growth by 0.1 percentage point
Heatwaves and drought will reduce French GDP growth by around 0.1 percentage point in 2026, Banque de France estimates. Its October 20 blog by Melanie Coueffé, Léo Parpais and Maxime Ponsart puts agriculture at the center of the losses.
Agriculture bears the largest loss
Banque de France projects a 6 percent fall in agricultural value added in 2026, subtracting 0.1 percentage point from annual GDP growth.
Its September forecast put overall growth at 0.4 percent.
Agreste reports lower maize and fodder yields; firms cite livestock deaths and depleted fodder stocks.
Agricultural value added fell 15.4 percent in 2003, when cold winter and dry spring conditions compounded losses.
Agriculture's GDP share fell from 1.7 percent in 2002 to 1.2 percent in 2025.
INSEE smooths agricultural production across the year and began incorporating losses in August.
Heat raised electricity demand in June and July but constrained nuclear output in August.
Weather constrained 33 percent of public works firms in Q3, the highest share since 2018.
Business comments quantify summer disruption
The Monthly Business Survey covers about 8,500 firms but excludes agriculture.
In July, 21 percent mentioned heat-related events: 18 percent cited heat and 3 percent Gironde wildfires, versus 19 percent citing fires in Nouvelle Aquitaine.
Replacing affected firms' responses with sector averages puts July's manufacturing balance at 3.5 rather than 1.7 points.
Heat lowered the agri-food balance by 2.1 points on average over May-August.
Survey-covered sectors lost 0.01 percentage point of GDP growth in Q2 and 0.03 in Q3; manufacturers anticipated recovering some output from September.
GDP misses the wealth loss
The bank attributes the limited aggregate production loss to operational adjustments, recoverable output and contrasting demand effects.
Agriculture remains outside the business survey, requiring a separate estimate.
GDP also excludes some damage to natural and physical assets, so it misses part of the economic cost.