French households see 9.5 percent inflation as actual rate hits 0.8
A Banque de France survey of 4,000 residents shows household inflation perceptions averaged 9.5 percent in late 2025, despite official inflation dropping to 0.8 percent. Over 80 percent of respondents reported a loss in purchasing power since 2021.
The persistent perception gap
The Banque de France survey conducted with CSA reveals an 8.7 percentage point gap between perceived household inflation (9.5 percent) and actual HICP inflation (0.8 percent) at the end of 2025.
While 83 percent of respondents overestimated price increases over the prior twelve months, their long-term recollection aligned more closely with the 13 percent cumulative inflation recorded between 2021 and 2025.
Food prices proved decisive: despite rising only 1.0 percent in 2025, 80 percent of households perceived continued increases due to the 20 percent cumulative rise since 2021.
Furthermore, 75 percent believed their incomes stagnated or fell, even as disposable income per capita grew 20 percent.
Memory asymmetry and frugal habits
The survey highlights an asymmetric perception: only 5 percent of households noticed price drops, such as the 15 percent decline in electricity costs in 2025, whereas 95 percent registered historical price surges.
This cognitive bias entrenches defensive behaviors.
Around 63 percent of respondents modified purchasing habits after the 2022–2023 shock, with 90 percent maintaining those measures in 2025.
Specifically, 92 percent track price tags more closely, and 84 percent forgo spending.
Scarred memory beats official math
The findings expose the psychological friction central banks face when rapid disinflation fails to sway consumer sentiment.
As episodic memory anchors households to cumulative price shocks, rate cuts alone cannot swiftly revive demand.
Policymakers must look beyond annual headline gauges to understand enduring shifts in spending behavior.