French GDP to grow 0.1 percent in Q3 as activity rebounds
The Banque de France estimates gross domestic product will grow by 0.1 percent in the third quarter of 2026, supported by market services and a rebound in manufacturing. The assessment follows a survey of 8,500 companies conducted between August 27 and September 3.
Defense and data centers drive output
Industrial production expanded in August above its long-term trend, though momentum trailed prior forecasts across several sectors.
Output was driven by capital goods and transport equipment, propelled by aeronautics, defense orders, and data center construction.
The industrial capacity utilisation rate stood at 76.4 percent, slightly below the 76.6 percent recorded in July.
Market services grew at a moderate pace, buoyed by software publishing, consultancy, and business services, whereas heatwaves dampened hospitality.
Construction recorded modest gains, with finishing works sustained by thermal insulation installations.
Meanwhile, cash positions worsened across manufacturing sub-sectors.
Political fog and price pressures
Business sentiment showed rising uncertainty in services and construction, where corporate leaders cited domestic political concerns and operational risks from mandatory electronic invoicing.
Price dynamics remained mixed: 11 percent of industrial firms raised selling prices in August, compared to a long-term average of 6 percent, while raw material cost pressures persisted in food and electronics.
Recruitment difficulties affected 17 percent of firms, easing slightly from the previous month.
Trapped in low gear
A quarterly expansion of 0.1 percent confirms that France remains trapped near stagnation.
Targeted boosts in defense and tech cannot compensate for widespread domestic hesitation and weak order books.
Until political clarity returns, economic momentum will remain essentially flat.