€-coin index falls to 0.45 in May

The €-coin indicator, a summary index of the euro area's current economic situation, decreased in May to 0.45 from 0.52 in April.

This decline reflects persistently low levels of consumer and business confidence, signaling a cautious outlook among households and firms.

Weakening demand further contributed to the downward pressure, suggesting a slowdown in economic activity.

Pressures on global supply chains also played a role, impacting production and trade dynamics.

The €-coin provides an estimate of quarterly GDP growth, stripped of erratic components such as seasonal variations and short-run volatility, offering a clearer view of underlying economic trends.

Published monthly by Banca d'Italia and CEPR, it serves as a timely gauge of economic momentum, preceding official Eurostat GDP figures by several months.

The €-coin is constructed monthly using a vast set of macroeconomic time series.

These include industrial production indices, business and household surveys, various demand indicators, and stock market indices.

This comprehensive data set allows researchers to extract the underlying trend of euro-area GDP growth, providing a robust and timely economic signal.

The indicator's methodology aims to filter out short-term noise, focusing on the fundamental direction of the economy.

A new version of the indicator was published in January 2021, incorporating revisions to its database and estimation sample to enhance its accuracy and relevance.

The €-coin series is based on real-time estimates and is not revised, ensuring consistency in its historical performance data.