€-coin increases slightly in April
The Banca d'Italia's €-coin indicator rose slightly to 0.52 in April from 0.48 in March. The increase reflects stronger industrial orders and improved demand, despite a decline in business and household confidence.
Orders outweigh confidence dip
The Banca d'Italia's €-coin indicator, a summary index of the current economic situation in the euro area, increased slightly in April, reaching 0.52 from 0.48 in the previous month.
This modest rise was primarily driven by stronger industrial orders and an improvement in some demand indicators.
However, these positive developments were partially offset by a deterioration in both business and household confidence.
The €-coin provides an estimate of quarterly GDP growth, stripped of the most erratic components such as seasonal variations and short-run volatility.
It offers an early indication of the euro-area economic trend, preceding official Eurostat GDP figures by several months.
The indicator is published monthly by Banca d'Italia and CEPR.
A real-time economic barometer
The €-coin indicator is constructed monthly from a vast set of macroeconomic time series, including industrial production indices and business and household surveys.
Its purpose is to extract the underlying trend of euro-area GDP growth, providing an early and unrevised indication of economic activity.
Unlike official GDP growth rates, which are subject to revisions, the €-coin series is based on real-time estimates and remains unrevised, ensuring a consistent historical perspective.
The indicator has shown a general upward trend over the past year, rising from 0.25 in April 2025 to its current level of 0.52. A new version of the indicator, with database and estimation sample revisions, was published starting in January 2021.
Mixed signals persist
The modest €-coin rise suggests fragile euro area economic improvement, yet declining confidence points to persistent uncertainties.
While offering valuable real-time GDP insight, its mixed signals underscore the recovery's uneven nature.
Policymakers must note that momentum is present but remains vulnerable, requiring careful monitoring.
Source: €-coin increases slightly in April
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