Euro area economic indicator €-coin rises to 0.54 in February

The €-coin indicator, developed by Banca d'Italia and CEPR, provides a summary index of the current economic situation in the euro area.

It estimates quarterly GDP growth, stripping out erratic components like seasonal variations and short-run volatility.

In February, the indicator rose to 0.54, a slight increase from 0.49 in January.

This upward movement is primarily supported by sustained confidence among manufacturing firms and a moderate but consistent improvement in various demand indicators across the euro area.

The indicator's design allows it to precede official Eurostat GDP figures by several months, offering an early, smoothed indication of the underlying economic trend.

€-coin is constructed monthly by leveraging a vast array of macroeconomic time series, including industrial production indices, business and household surveys, demand indicators, and stock market indices.

This comprehensive data set allows for the extraction of underlying trends in euro-area GDP growth, providing a clear signal net of short-term fluctuations.

Over the past year, the indicator has shown a general upward trend, rising from 0.43 in February 2025 to its current 0.54. This consistent performance underscores its utility as a timely measure of economic momentum, preceding official GDP releases and offering valuable insights into the economic cycle.