African emigration driven by domestic shocks, not EU pull

Emigration from Africa has significantly increased, particularly towards the European Union, drawing considerable media and political attention.

This paper explores the drivers of this phenomenon using a decomposition methodology.

Researchers first isolated the change in emigrant stock attributable to shocks in origin countries, quantifying how much domestic conditions incentivize emigration regardless of destination.

They also assessed the EU's role in attracting African migrants.

The study finds that domestic shocks have increasingly contributed to outflows from the continent over time.

In contrast, the attraction exerted by the EU is positive, but comparatively small.

An econometric analysis across a large set of countries suggests that a growing labour force, higher per capita GDP, and worsening labour market conditions generally increase the incentive to emigrate.

Notably, while higher exposure to natural disasters is typically associated with a lower propensity to emigrate, this correlation turns slightly positive for Africa.

The number of migrants born in Africa and residing in the European Union more than doubled from 4.1 million in 1990 to 9.2 million in 2020.

This increase, however, is not unique to the EU; African communities in other regions like North America and Asia grew at even higher rates over the same period.

Despite these figures, the percentage of people emigrating from Africa remained broadly stable relative to the origin population, while increasing relative to the destination population, especially in the EU and North America. Underlying demographic trends play a significant role: Africa's population is projected to increase by over 1 billion by 2050, while the EU's native-born population is shrinking.

This dynamic suggests a potential for continued large inflows of migrants into the EU in the coming decades.