Corporate executives reveal AI's mixed impact on productivity and jobs
A new working paper from the BIS, based on a survey of nearly 750 corporate executives, documents the heterogeneous effects of artificial intelligence on productivity and the workforce. The study finds positive labor productivity gains and significant compositional shifts in labor markets, but little evidence of near-term aggregate employment declines.
Productivity gains, paradoxes, and sector specifics
The study, drawing on a survey of nearly 750 corporate executives, reveals substantial heterogeneity in AI adoption, with over half of firms already investing, though many smaller companies are just beginning.
Labor productivity gains are positive and expected to strengthen in 2026, particularly in high-skill services and finance, where implied annual growth could exceed 2 percent.
These gains are primarily driven by increases in revenue-based total factor productivity, closely associated with innovation- and demand-oriented channels, rather than capital deepening.
A 'productivity paradox' is documented, where perceived gains exceed measured ones, likely due to delayed revenue realization and uncaptured quality improvements, echoing historical technological diffusion patterns.
Obstacles to AI investment include lack of workforce training, technology immaturity, and privacy concerns.
Workforce shifts without aggregate job losses
In labor markets, the paper finds little evidence of near-term aggregate employment declines due to AI, with a projected reduction of less than 0.4 percent in 2026.
However, compositional reallocation is evident: larger companies anticipate AI-driven workforce reductions, while smaller firms expect modest gains.
There is a clear shift away from routine clerical roles, which are expected to decline by over 2 percentage points, towards skilled technical positions, such as engineers and data analysts.
The authors developed a Negative Exposure Index (NEI) to rank job functions most negatively affected by AI, identifying office and administrative support roles as highly exposed, while professional, technical, and sales roles are more often enhanced.
Beyond the Hype: Nuanced Realities of AI Integration
This study offers a crucial, executive-level perspective on AI's real-world impact, moving beyond theoretical models to reveal practical challenges and opportunities.
While dispelling fears of immediate mass unemployment, it underscores the profound compositional shifts demanding proactive workforce reskilling.
The documented 'productivity paradox' highlights the persistent difficulty in quantifying transformative technological gains, suggesting policy responses must be agile and data-driven.