Export controls target high-tech trade, shaped by geopolitics
A Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper characterizes how export controls are allocated across products and destinations. It finds controls disproportionately target high-technology products and economically important trade relationships, with geopolitical distance shaping their application non-linearly.
Targeting high-value technology
The research reveals four main findings on contemporary export controls.
First, while broad in regulatory scope, they are economically concentrated on high-value trade flows, disproportionately targeting economically meaningful relationships.
Second, targeting decisions are jointly shaped by technological characteristics, economic importance, and geopolitical relationships, with high-technology products being more vulnerable.
Third, geopolitical distance plays a nonlinear role, with targeting substantially higher among geopolitical rivals, especially for high-technology trade.
Finally, the analysis shows that modern export controls are primarily organized around products rather than destinations, consistent with a technology-centered regulatory framework focused on technology diffusion.
Mapping policy interventions
The paper provides an empirical characterization of export-related trade interventions across products, destinations, and bilateral trade relationships.
Using newly assembled data from the Global Trade Alert New Industrial Policy Observatory (GTA–NIPO), the authors identify active export-side policy interventions, including export bans and licensing requirements.
The study focuses on the allocation of these interventions rather than their trade effects or restrictiveness.
The analysis is cross-sectional, characterizing interventions active in 2026 and using 2023 trade flows to assess economic relevance.
It distinguishes between the full set of potential relationships (policy scope) and relationships with positive trade flows (economic relevance).