Tabaković: Recessions disillusion more than wars, act on demographics

Dr Jorgovanka Tabaković, Governor of the National Bank of Serbia, emphasized that demographic changes require strategic policy responses to avoid economic repercussions. Speaking at the EBRD Transition Report presentation in Belgrade on April 28, 2026, she highlighted that recessions disillusion people more than wars.

Recessions hit harder than wars

Governor Jorgovanka Tabaković asserted that recessions have a greater impact on public disappointment than wars, urging a fight against economic downturns.

She highlighted that demographic changes profoundly affect key economic segments, including the labour market, economic growth, and inflation dynamics.

Policymakers face challenges from declining fertility rates, population ageing, and a shrinking labour force.

The National Bank of Serbia Governor emphasized three critical economic consequences: lower-than-potential GDP growth due to a shrinking workforce, increased pressure on pension, social, and healthcare systems, and a demonstrated resilience of the European labour market that is already under strain.

These trends necessitate strategic economic policy responses to ensure long-term stability and prosperity, focusing on quality, adaptability, and productivity of labour rather than just quantity.

Tabaković underscored that while increased life expectancy is a civilisational achievement, it must be complemented by a higher quality of life and healthier ageing, always keeping people at the heart of policy decisions.

Investing in people and productivity

Globally, regions with rapidly ageing populations seek new productivity sources and stronger social protection, while younger regions invest in education and job creation.

Policy solutions include technology and AI to compensate for labour shortages, active labour market policies to boost participation, and crucial private sector involvement in driving productivity and technology.

Managed migration and structural reforms in education and human capital are also vital.

In Serbia, despite a moderate population decline of 13 percent from 1990 to 2023, the total fertility rate grew from 1.46 in 2014 to 1.64 in 2024, countering the EU average decline.

This has improved Serbia's ranking among European peers.

The Republic of Serbia is developing a comprehensive Demographic Development Strategy for 2026–2036, with President Vučić prioritizing policies to strengthen the birth rate through increased financial allocations for families.

Beyond statistics, a call for courage

Governor Tabaković's speech transcends typical demographic discussions, framing the 'brave old world' as a call to preserve fundamental values amidst inevitable change.

Her assertion that recessions are more disillusioning than wars is a stark reminder for policymakers to prioritize stability and human well-being.

Serbia's unique counter-cyclical fertility trend and NBS's gender equality offer a compelling counter-narrative for other nations facing similar demographic challenges.