Monthly inflation slows to 1.9 percent as money controls remain
Central Bank of Argentina President Santiago Bausili said monthly inflation averaged 1.9 percent in Q3 2026. Presenting the monetary policy report with Deputy Governor Vladimir Werning, he reaffirmed control of money quantities.
Disinflation under quantity controls
The Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) maintained monetary quantity controls in Q3. Monthly CPI inflation averaged 1.9 percent, down 0.3 percentage points from Q2; underlying inflation eased to 2.0 percent.
Underlying goods inflation averaged 1.7 percent and services 2.7 percent.
Bausili attributed disinflation to fiscal and monetary discipline, while flagging beef, gas tariffs and gasoline as Q4 risks.
Market Expectations Survey (REM) analysts projected annual inflation of 30 percent in 2026, 21.2 percent in 2027 and 15.0 percent in 2028.
BCRA foreign exchange purchases exceeded $15.8 billion through October 28, against a $10 billion full-year IMF program target.
Q3 purchases totaled $3.4 billion; reserves rose $1.222 billion during the quarter and approximately $9 billion year to date.
Exports offset weaker domestic activity
Q2 GDP fell 0.6 percent quarter-on-quarter but grew 2.0 percent year-on-year; exports rose 2.5 percent and 13.7 percent, respectively.
Growth reached 1.2 percent in January-August.
REM analysts forecast growth of 1.5 percent in 2026, 2.5 percent in 2027 and 3.0 percent in 2028, and a $25.7 billion trade surplus in 2026.
The Q3 primary surplus was 1.6 percent of annualized, seasonally adjusted GDP.
Bausili warned of prolonged energy inflation, tighter global financing and slower global growth, with Brent above $113 per barrel in late October.
Credibility rests on fiscal discipline
Bausili presented fiscal and monetary consistency as the basis for continued disinflation.
He said the proposed BCRA Charter reform would prohibit public sector financing and limit earnings distributions.
In his assessment, those restrictions would reduce the risk of renewed monetary expansion from fiscal imbalances.