ECBPaper
Euro area option prices show long-term inflation risks remained anchored between 2009 and 2026, even when two-year deflation probability reached 70 percent.
BDEPaper
A Banco de España study finds that US tariffs on China during 2018 and 2019 redirected nine euro cents of trade to the EU for every dollar lost in US imports.
BDIPaper
Credit rating frameworks for large corporations rely on qualitative expert judgement and sector models across European institutions, a Banca d'Italia study shows.
FEDPaper
Dynamic heterogeneity is the only enhancement among four popular model extensions that consistently improves point, density and tail nowcasts for US GDP.
BOCPaper
Higher tariffs on intermediate imports transmit two-thirds of their total consumer price impact through domestic supply chains, according to a Bank of Canada staff working paper.
BOCPaper
A 25 percent retaliatory tariff on US imports raises Canada's aggregate price index by 0.66 percent, well below the 1.25 percent implied by direct pass-through.
NORGESPaper
Relative inflation and monetary policy announcements account for 70 to 80 percent of EURNOK forecast-error variance and 60 to 70 percent for USDEUR, according to a Norges Bank study by Karsten Gerdrup, Kristoffer Hallerud, and Nicolò Maffei-Faccioli.
BOEPaper
The backing requirement for banknotes issued by six commercial banks in Scotland and Northern Ireland fell 0.97 percent to £7.89 billion at end-February 2026.
ECBPaper
Local linear forests reduce French wage forecasting errors by nearly half when combined with cross-border data.
ECBPaper
High-frequency interest rate surprises conflate pure policy shocks with central bank information and rule misperceptions, according to an ECB working paper by Marek Jarociński and Peter Karadi covering over 600 Fed events from 1988 to 2025.
BISPaper
Between 2021 and 2025, 55.2 percent of incoming investments in artificial intelligence firms originated from within the sector itself, according to a BIS study.