Russian trend and core inflation estimates up to March 2026

The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) publishes detailed estimates for trend and modified core inflation, providing crucial insights into underlying price dynamics.

The data includes trend inflation calculated using both 5-year and 3-year rolling windows.

These measures smooth out short-term fluctuations to highlight persistent price movements, offering a clearer view of long-term consumer price trajectories.

The CBR also employs two distinct methodologies for modified core inflation.

One is a truncation method, which dynamically excludes components with extreme monthly inflation values, ensuring the core measure is not distorted by temporary price shocks.

The other approach identifies and excludes the most volatile components, such as eggs, sugar, vegetables, and petrol, based on their historical price fluctuations.

This statistical framework, developed by the CBR's Research and Forecasting Department, uses CPI data from Rosstat to assess inflation robustly.

The CBR's truncation method for modified core inflation systematically excludes components with extreme monthly values, with the specific basket changing each month.

This approach focuses on the levels of monthly inflation, preventing distortion from temporary shocks.

The second method, excluding the most volatile components, measures volatility as the standard deviation of monthly inflation over a moving 2-year window.

Common exclusions include eggs, sugar, vegetables, fruits, and petrol.

These methodologies, detailed in a 2015 working paper, aim to provide a more refined understanding of inflation by isolating its persistent and less volatile elements, using CPI data from Rosstat.