Russian households' inflation expectations decline in June
A survey commissioned by the Bank of Russia (CBR) shows that Russian households' inflation expectations declined in June 2026. The report, conducted by inFOM, also covers consumer and savings sentiment.
The inflation moderation
The median value of households' expected annual inflation fell by 1 percentage point to 12.4 percent in June 2026, according to the latest Bank of Russia survey.
This marks a continuation of the downward trend observed since January 2026, when expected inflation stood at 13.7 percent.
The share of respondents expecting prices to rise 'very strongly' in the next month also decreased from 17 percent in May to 14 percent in June.
Similarly, the proportion of those who believe prices have risen 'very strongly' over the past month declined from 53 percent to 50 percent.
These shifts indicate a broad-based moderation in perceived and anticipated price dynamics among the Russian population.
The survey, conducted by inFOM, involved 2020 respondents across 100 localities in 54 regions of the Russian Federation between May 29 and June 10, 2026.
Beyond price perceptions
Beyond inflation expectations, the survey also tracks broader consumer and economic sentiments.
The Consumer Sentiment Index showed a slight improvement in June, reflecting a more optimistic outlook on personal financial situations and the overall economic climate.
Expectations regarding unemployment remained stable, with a majority of respondents not anticipating significant changes in the labor market.
However, perceptions of currency exchange rate dynamics showed some volatility, with a notable portion of the population expecting the ruble to weaken against major foreign currencies.
Savings behavior remained cautious, with a steady share of households preferring to save rather than spend, although the preferred instruments for savings varied across demographic groups.
These indicators provide a comprehensive picture of household financial well-being and their reactions to economic developments.
A fragile improvement
This decline in inflation expectations is a welcome development for the Bank of Russia, potentially easing pressure for further monetary tightening.
However, the absolute level of 12.4 percent remains significantly above the central bank's 4 percent target, indicating persistent inflationary concerns among the populace.
While a positive step, this single month's data does not yet signal a definitive shift in the long-term inflation outlook, requiring continued vigilance from policymakers.