Inflation expectations rise to 14.2 percent in September
Russian households' median inflation expectations for the year ahead rose to 14.2 percent in September from 13.7 percent in August, according to an inFOM survey commissioned by the Bank of Russia. Observed annual inflation increased to 15.1 percent from 14.3 percent.
Price perceptions climb across demographic groups
The September survey conducted by inFOM for the Bank of Russia surveyed 2,019 respondents across 100 localities in 54 regions between September 3 and 15, 2026.
The median expectation for twelve-month inflation increased across both main demographic segments.
Among respondents with savings, expected inflation rose to 12.8 percent from 12.0 percent in August, while for those without savings it rose to 15.4 percent from 15.0 percent.
Estimates of observed price growth over the past year climbed to 13.6 percent for savers and 16.3 percent for non-savers, up from 12.7 percent and 15.5 percent respectively.
In contrast, long-term inflation expectations for five years ahead declined to 10.7 percent from 12.4 percent.
Sentiment recovers as fuel and food pressure mounts
The Consumer Sentiment Index improved to 96 points in September from 93 points in August.
The expectations sub-index rose to 100 points from 96 points, while the current state component reached 88 points.
When asked about product categories with pronounced price rises over the past month, respondents most frequently pointed to meat and poultry at 47 percent, gasoline at 41 percent, and fish and seafood at 35 percent.
On financial behavior, 53 percent favored saving excess funds, while 38 percent preferred holding cash over bank deposits.
Unanchored expectations challenge policy
The rise in short-term expectations demonstrates how deeply entrenched price sensitivity remains among households.
Persistent concerns over food and fuel prices continue to anchor inflation psychology well above the four percent target.
Monetary policy will struggle to guide expectations lower without durable relief in basic goods.
Source: Inflation expectations rise in September
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