Lower fossil fuel dependence cushions growth and inflation shocks
De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) Governor Olaf Sleijpen argues that the energy transition strengthens economic resilience. At the OeNB climate talk, he cited estimates that European mitigation policies reduce future fossil fuel shocks' inflationary impact by 40 percent.
Less oil, less exposure
Euro area headline inflation rose from 1.7 percent in January to 3.8 percent in September 2026 after the Iran war triggered an energy price shock.
EU temporary subsidy instruments cost €195 billion in 2022; estimates for 2021-2023 reach €540 billion.
The Dutch economy is around 70 percent less oil-dependent than in the 1970s, reducing its vulnerability.
European Commission estimates put the EU GDP impact of doubled fossil fuel prices at -0.8 percent in the 2025 economy versus -0.4 percent in a decarbonized 2040 economy.
Sleijpen said flexibility, renewable generation and diversification across fuels, technologies and suppliers strengthen energy security and strategic autonomy.
An International Energy Agency (IEA) analysis of Ukraine illustrates these benefits.
Climate damage meets investment gains
Cited research estimates that a permanent 1°C temperature rise can reduce long-run global GDP per capita by more than 20 percent.
Temperature shocks raise euro area inflation by around 1 percentage point, peaking after three years, and over 2 points in more exposed Southern European countries.
IEA estimates attribute nearly one-third of EU GDP growth in 2023 to clean energy investment, versus 10 percent globally.
European Environment Agency estimates put renewables' wholesale electricity cost savings at €29 billion in early 2026, reducing exposure to volatile gas prices.
Resilience over repeated compensation
Sleijpen advocates using limited fiscal space to reduce exposure to climate, energy and geopolitical shocks.
He calls for stable, credible and clearly communicated policies to support investment.
Temporary support must protect vulnerable households and viable firms without weakening incentives to adapt, he argues.