Sleijpen urges net zero to curb climate and energy shocks
Olaf Sleijpen of De Nederlandsche Bank (DNB) urged faster decarbonization at COP31 in Antalya to reduce climate damage and fossil-energy exposure. He cited estimates that renewables avoided $480 billion in fossil-fuel costs in 2025.
Renewables as economic shock absorbers
Sleijpen said energy prices would rise by at least 30 percent on average in 2026.
A temporary 25 percent increase in carbon-intensive energy prices can raise short-run inflation by 2 percentage points on average.
He cited the International Renewable Energy Agency's cost estimates and said renewables buffered the early-2026 Strait of Hormuz closure.
EU renewables saved almost €30 billion in wholesale electricity costs in January-April 2026.
Clean-energy investment supported nearly one-third of EU GDP growth and around 10 percent globally in 2023.
He called for credible long-term policy, emissions pricing and targeted temporary subsidies, alongside renewable-source diversification and integrated European energy markets to manage new battery and commodity dependencies.
Adaptation cannot replace emissions cuts
Weather damage averaged $384 billion annually over five years, more than twice early-2000s levels.
The Network for Greening the Financial System (NGFS), chaired by Sleijpen, found extreme-weather GDP losses up to 57 percent and inflation increases up to 17 percentage points.
Its adverse 3-5-year scenarios put regional GDP losses near 6 percent in Asia and 12.5 percent in Africa.
Sleijpen said a 1.5°C overshoot within a decade was certain.
Citing the United Nations Environment Programme, he said a 1.8°C mid-century pathway required emissions cuts of 18 percent by 2030 and 45 percent by 2035, plus CO2 removal.
Delay raises the adjustment bill
NGFS scenarios put transition costs by 2030 at around 0.5 percent of global GDP with early coordinated action, versus 1.3 percent after a three-year delay.
Sleijpen urged countries to implement their Nationally Determined Contributions.
He said diversification alone cannot limit warming: net zero remains the destination.