Low-level drink-driving convictions cut employment by 6.8 points
Low-level drink-driving convictions reduce employment by 6.8 percentage points over the following two years, Federal Reserve research finds for New Zealand. Reduced job entry drives most of the decline; monthly earnings fall by about NZ$90.
Hiring losses outlast driving bans
The study tracks 1,824 New Zealand-born individuals first convicted between January 2007 and December 2019.
They had breath alcohol readings of 400–500 micrograms per litre or equivalent blood readings, NZ$400–500 fines and 180-day license suspensions.
Over the following 24 months, employment falls by 6.8 percentage points, or 9.8 percent relative to its pre-conviction level.
Employment entry falls by 8.2 percentage points, while exits rise by 2.2 points, conditional on employment status two years earlier.
Monthly earnings among employed workers fall by NZ$90, or 2.3 percent.
The employment decline reaches about 15 percentage points after two years.
Effects persist beyond the driving ban, with no detectable decline in retention by existing employers.
Criminal records impede new matches
Kabir Dasgupta, Marco Francesconi, Jonathan James, Linda Kirkpatrick and Alexander Plum link court, tax and census records.
Their staggered difference-in-differences design compares earlier-convicted individuals with those convicted later.
Matching against non-convicted controls yields a smaller, 4.1-point employment decline.
New-match employment falls by 4.8 points in industries classified as medium/high screening, versus 1.9 points in low-screening industries.
The authors interpret this as evidence of hiring barriers.
The preliminary findings are not Federal Reserve Board conclusions.
Screening evidence has limits
The authors identify hiring barriers rather than imprisonment as the main employment channel.
Screening intensity is inferred from industry characteristics, not observed employer checks.
They propose evaluating diversion, shorter record-disclosure periods and hiring support, not a tested policy remedy.