Bank for International Settlements
BIS
Paper
ForeComp package controls size distortion in forecast comparisons
Researchers from the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia and Baltimore Orioles introduced ForeComp, an R package designed to correct small-sample size distortions in Diebold-Mariano forecast evaluation tests using fixed-smoothing asymptotics.
Focus
BIS
Paper
Spreading inventions drive 40 percent of productivity decline
A working paper published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia reveals that US inventions have become increasingly dissimilar over the past two centuries.
BIS
Paper
Unanchored inflation expectations double energy shock impact on prices
A Bank for International Settlements study shows that global energy supply shocks produce more than double the impact on core inflation when household inflation expectations exceed central bank targets.
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BIS
Paper
CRE bank loans cluster regionally while bond debt spreads globally
A study of the 100 largest euro area commercial real estate groups reveals distinct risk patterns between bank loans and bond markets.
BIS
Paper
Uncertainty shocks steepen credit surfaces and restrict leverage
A Federal Reserve working paper by John Geanakoplos and David Rappoport shows that uncertainty shocks steepen credit surfaces across leverage ratios.
BIS
Paper
Below-market mortgage rates curb household mobility by 17 percent
A review of economic literature by Federal Reserve researchers shows that below-market mortgage rates reduced US household mobility by up to 17 percent post-2021.
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BIS
Speech
Williams sees inflation returning to 2 percent target by 2028
Federal Reserve Bank of New York President John Williams expects US inflation to decline to 3.25 percent by year-end and return to the 2 percent target in 2028, while keeping the policy rate range at 3.5 to 3.75 percent.
BIS
Speech
Energy shocks and AI boom split global growth, Panetta warns
Banca d'Italia Governor Fabio Panetta warned that global markets may be underestimating risks from Middle East conflict energy shocks and persistent inflation.
BIS
Speech
Supply shocks force trade-off between inflation and employment
RBA Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter warned that increasingly frequent supply shocks are forcing central banks to balance inflation control against economic activity.
BIS
Speech
Rise in intangible assets weakens monetary policy transmission
Deutsche Bundesbank Executive Board member Fritzi Köhler-Geib stated that growing investment in intangible assets weakens the transmission of monetary policy through traditional credit channels.
BIS
Speech
Nagel outlines strategy to bolster global role of euro
Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel has urged European policymakers to strengthen the euro's international standing through a digital euro and deeper financial integration.
BIS
Speech
China expands Southbound Bond Connect quota to 800 billion yuan
People's Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced new measures to strengthen Hong Kong as an offshore yuan hub during a summit on July 7, 2026.