European Central Bank
ECBPaper
News narratives on supply shocks lift inflation risk premia
An ECB working paper shows that inflation risk premia in the euro area and the US are inversely related to media narratives attributing inflation to demand versus supply drivers.
Focus
ECBPaper
Renewables curb power prices as gas pass-through accelerates
An ECB study shows that renewable energy growth has weakened the link between wholesale gas and electricity prices across the euro area.
ECBPaper
Bank competition reduces credit risk only in well-capitalized banks
Increased lending competition lowers corporate credit risk primarily for well-capitalized banks, according to an ECB working paper analyzing 146 euro area lenders from 2020 to 2025.
Latest
ECBPaper
Centralized supervision cuts firm intangible assets by 2.7 percent
Borrowers from banks under the European Central Bank's Single Supervisory Mechanism reduced their share of intangible assets by 2.7 percent between 2013 and 2018, according to an ECB working paper by Miguel Ampudia, Thorsten Beck, and Alexander Popov.
ECBNews
Consumer inflation expectations rise across all horizons
Euro area consumers raised their inflation expectations across short- and long-term horizons in August 2026, while income growth projections stayed at 1.0 percent.
ECBSpeech
Vujčić backs reserve requirements to absorb excess liquidity
European Central Bank Vice-President Boris Vujčić advocated using minimum reserve requirements to absorb excess liquidity in an interview published on September 18, 2026.
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ECBPaper
Real GDP updates drive output gap revisions across euro area
An ECB study published in September 2026 finds that real GDP data revisions and forecast errors drive the bulk of euro area output gap adjustments.
ECBPaper
FinBERT outperforms word counts in financial news sentiment scoring
Transformer-based language models capture financial news sentiment far closer to human judgment than traditional lexicon methods, according to an ECB working paper published in September 2026.
ECBPaper
Survey histogram tilting improves model forecast accuracy
Entropically tilting Bayesian VAR forecasts directly to Survey of Professional Forecasters histograms improves predictive accuracy across US macroeconomic variables.
ECBPaper
Loan moratoria yield 47 cents of investment per postponed euro
Austrian microenterprises invested 47 cents for every euro of debt service postponed during the pandemic without experiencing higher defaults, an ECB working paper finds.
ECBNews
Negotiated wage growth to reach 2.7 percent in early 2027
The European Central Bank's updated wage tracker indicates negotiated wage growth of 2.7 percent in the first quarter and 2.8 percent in the second quarter of 2027.
ECBPaper
Tightening cycles amplify policy impact as debt burdens rise
A European Central Bank working paper by Valerio Scalone and Silvana Tenreyro finds that monetary tightening cycles increase private-sector debt-service ratios, amplifying the economic impact of subsequent rate hikes while rate cuts become progressively less effective.