European Central Bank
Forecast errors shed light on economic shock types
Economic forecasts often miss the mark, but the patterns of these errors provide valuable insights.
Focus
Monetary policy mitigated inflationary redistribution from young to old
A new ECB working paper finds that monetary policy largely offset the substantial redistribution from young and poor to older and wealthier households caused by the 2021-2022 euro area inflationary surge.
Satellite data significantly improves oil demand forecasting
A new ECB working paper finds that satellite observations of nitrogen dioxide (NO₂) significantly enhance the nowcasting accuracy of oil demand.
Latest
Consumer inflation expectations decline across horizons in January
Median consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months decreased to 2.6 percent in January, according to the latest ECB Consumer Expectations Survey.
Accommodative policy drives global bond fund risk-taking
A new ECB working paper reveals that accommodative monetary policies by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank increase risk-taking in bond funds' portfolios.
ECB balance sheet contracts by €37.3 billion, annual loss significantly lower
The European Central Bank's balance sheet contracted by €37.3 billion in 2025, primarily due to the decline in monetary policy securities.
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ECB reports significantly lower loss of €1.3 billion for 2025
The European Central Bank reported a loss of €1,254 million for 2025, a significant reduction from the €7,944 million loss in 2024, primarily due to lower net interest expense.
Boris Vujčić approved as next ECB Vice-President
The European Central Bank's Governing Council has approved Boris Vujčić as the proposed candidate for its next Vice-President.
Monetary policy hikes increase homeowners insurance prices, amplifying housing market impacts
A new ECB Working Paper reveals that contractionary monetary policy shocks lead to higher homeowners insurance prices.
Tariffs impede business dynamism and long-term growth in Europe
Rising tariffs are placing European companies under strain, threatening business dynamism and long-term economic growth.
Asset management companies stabilize credit by breaking NPL feedback loop
A new European Central Bank working paper finds that asset management companies (AMCs) effectively stabilize credit by purchasing nonperforming loans (NPLs) and breaking the feedback loop between default rates and lending costs.
Model comparison reveals climate transition challenges for monetary policy
A new ECB working paper compares several multi-sector monetary models to analyze the macroeconomic effects of carbon-intensive energy price changes.