China overtakes euro area with 28.6 percent weight in rand basket
South Africa updated its effective exchange rate indices to a 2022 base year, expanding the currency basket to 23 trading partners as China overtook the euro area as the largest trade weight at 28.6 percent.
China takes top spot in expanded basket
The 2026 revision of South Africa's nominal and real effective exchange rate indices shifts the base year from 2015 to 2022 using 2022–2024 trade data.
China became the primary trading partner with an overall weight of 28.60 percent, surpassing the euro area at 26.01 percent.
The United States ranks third at 11.00 percent, while India rose to fourth at 6.03 percent, moving ahead of Japan at 3.66 percent.
The United Kingdom fell to 2.72 percent.
The basket expanded from 20 to 23 partners, adding Czechia, Indonesia, Mexico and Türkiye while removing Malaysia.
Despite substantial trade shares, Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of the Congo were excluded due to exchange rate regime instabilities.
Manufacturing deficit anchors the basket
South Africa recorded a persistent trade deficit in manufactured goods, with imports accounting for 60.6 percent and exports 39.4 percent of trade during the period.
Consequently, import weights exerted a dominant influence on the final currency basket.
The revised nominal effective exchange rate tracked the previous series closely, displaying an average daily deviation of 0.1 index points.
The real effective exchange rate showed modest competitiveness gains between early 2024 and early 2025 as inflation differentials narrowed.
China exposure in sharp focus
The update formalizes South Africa's heavy reliance on Asian supply chains.
Excluding volatile regional currencies preserves data reliability despite omitting key African export markets.
The minimal tracking shift ensures statistical continuity while highlighting heightened vulnerability to Chinese price shocks.