GDP forecast raised to 1.5 percent with key rate held at 6.50 percent
Banco de México has raised its 2026 economic growth forecast to 1.5 percent from 1.1 percent while keeping its policy rate at 6.50 percent. Governor Victoria Rodríguez Ceja confirmed the revised outlook during a banking association address in Mexico City on August 25, 2026.
From contraction to export rebound
Mexican gross domestic product expanded 1.4 percent quarter-on-quarter in the second quarter of 2026, recovering from a contraction in the first quarter.
Banxico raised its full-year 2026 growth projection to 1.5 percent from 1.1 percent, driven by expanding private consumption, recovering fixed investment, and buoyant exports of artificial intelligence computing equipment to the United States.
Headline inflation slowed to 3.26 percent in the first half of August, down from early 2026 highs, while core inflation fell to 3.93 percent.
With the 25 basis point cut in May concluding the easing cycle that began in March 2024, the central bank held its benchmark rate unchanged at 6.50 percent across its June and August meetings.
Liquidity buffers and digital mandates
To manage interbank liquidity and curb overnight funding rate volatility, Banxico authorized secondary market repurchases of up to 100 billion pesos in floating-rate Bondes F and short-term Cetes, representing 2 percent of the outstanding stock.
Rodríguez clarified that these liquidity interventions are distinct from quantitative easing.
Additionally, the central bank mandated standardized electronic transfers and QR code specifications for depository accounts, maintaining a compliance deadline of December 14, 2026.
Prudence over premature easing
Banxico balances upgraded growth with a cautious pause on rate cuts.
Keeping rates at 6.50 percent offers vital protection against sticky services inflation and US trade friction.
The targeted liquidity tools rightly stabilize money markets without muddying policy clarity.