Policy rate held at 6.50 percent in unanimous vote
Banco de México unanimously maintained its overnight interbank interest rate target at 6.50 percent on September 24, 2026. The Governing Board emphasized that diverging economic cycles allow Mexico to avoid mechanically following rate increases by the Federal Reserve.
Diverging cycles break Fed lockstep
Governing Board members Victoria Rodríguez Ceja, Galia Borja Gómez, José Gabriel Cuadra García, Jonathan Ernest Heath Constable, and Omar Mejía Castelazo voted unanimously to keep the overnight rate at 6.50 percent.
Board members underscored that monetary policy does not need to react mechanically to Federal Reserve rate increases, which recently raised the federal funds target range by 25 basis points to 3.75-4.00 percent.
The Board pointed to distinct cyclical stages: while the United States operates with a positive output gap at the 82nd percentile, Mexico faces economic slack at the 12th percentile.
Second-quarter GDP expanded by 1.42 percent before moderating in the third quarter.
Non-core spikes mask core slowdown
Headline inflation rose from 3.10 percent in early July to 3.42 percent in early September, driven by non-core volatility as fruit and vegetable prices climbed 7.91 percent.
In contrast, core inflation maintained its downward path, slowing from 3.95 percent to 3.79 percent as merchandise inflation declined to 3.22 percent.
Services remained persistent at 4.33 percent.
While several members opened the door to rate cuts, others warned that geopolitical oil pressures demand caution.
Decoupling is easier declared than sustained
Banxico's refusal to shadow the Fed asserts welcome policy independence justified by domestic economic slack.
However, banking on currency resilience while global energy markets flare and the Fed tightens is a precarious gamble.
Unless services inflation breaks below four percent, talking about rate cuts risks premature easing.