Mejía sees policy as restrictive as Mexican inflation falls
Bank of Mexico Deputy Governor Omar Mejía Castelazo said on October 19, 2026, that monetary policy remains restrictive amid economic slack. The response will depend on which risks to the inflation outlook materialize.
Food pressures outlast energy transmission
September headline inflation stood at 3.45 percent, core inflation at 3.75 percent and non-core inflation at 2.45 percent.
Mejía described pressures as concentrated rather than widespread, with persistent food-service inflation and anchored expectations.
Merchandise inflation excluding items affected by tax updates has declined.
Energy-shock transmission has been limited.
Compared with January-June 2022, the current episode has peak oil prices of $111.54 versus $123.7 per barrel and supply-chain pressures around one versus three standard deviations above average.
Inflation ranges are 3.1-4.6 versus 7-8 percent, while annual job creation is 0-1.4 versus 4.4-5 percent.
Economic slack now contrasts with the earlier recovery.
Narrower spreads meet higher yields
Year-to-date, 30-year US Treasury yields rose 70-80 basis points, against 25-60 basis points for Mexican Mbonos.
Interest rate differentials narrowed, but Mexico's volatility-adjusted spread remained high.
Mejía cited US growth, technology-sector investment demand, geopolitical inflation risks and Federal Reserve policy expectations as yield drivers.
He noted limited exchange-rate pass-through when slack prevails.
His views do not necessarily represent the Bank of Mexico or its Governing Board.
Exports support an uneven recovery
Consumption and exports support growth, while global uncertainty weighs on investment.
Mejía projects a moderate recovery, citing technology exports and mixed-investment infrastructure projects for 2026-2030 as potential supports.
He sees trade-policy changes strengthening Mexico's position and scope for deeper US integration.