Brazilian market forecasts show rising inflation and stable growth

The latest Focus Market Readout from the Banco Central do Brasil, published on March 13, 2026, presents updated market expectations for key economic indicators.

For 2026, the median forecast for the Broad Consumer Price Index (IPCA) increased to 4.10 percent, up from 3.91 percent a week prior.

This marks an upward trend for the IPCA.

Similarly, the Selic Target rate expectation for 2026 also saw an upward revision, reaching 12.25 percent compared to 12.13 percent last week.

GDP growth expectations for 2026 showed a marginal increase to 1.83 percent from 1.82 percent.

Conversely, the exchange rate forecast for 2026 saw a slight decrease, settling at R$5.40 per US dollar, down from R$5.41. These figures reflect the median aggregate expectations over the past four weeks, one week, and the current day.

While near-term inflation and interest rate forecasts saw upward adjustments, market expectations for the subsequent years largely remained stable.

The IPCA for 2027, 2028, and 2029 held steady at 3.80 percent, 3.50 percent, and 3.50 percent, respectively.

Similarly, the Selic Target rate forecasts for 2027, 2028, and 2029 were maintained at 10.50 percent, 10.00 percent, and 9.50 percent.

GDP growth projections for these years also showed stability.

Other key indicators, such as the Trade Balance, Current Account, and Foreign Direct Investment, presented minor weekly fluctuations but generally maintained their previous trajectories across the forecast horizons.