Brazil market forecasts updated: Inflation, Selic, GDP

The latest Focus Market Readout from the Banco Central do Brasil reveals largely stable market expectations for key economic indicators in 2026.

The median forecast for the IPCA (consumer price index) inflation for 2026 remains at 5.33 percent, unchanged from the previous week's survey.

Similarly, the Selic target rate for 2026 holds firm at 14.00 percent per annum.

GDP growth expectations for 2026 saw a marginal upward revision, now standing at 1.99 percent, a slight increase from 1.98 percent a week ago.

The exchange rate forecast for 2026 also remained stable at R$5.20 per US dollar.

For 2027, IPCA is projected at 4.17 percent, showing a slight increase, while the Selic target is expected at 12.00 percent, unchanged from the prior week.

These figures reflect a period of relative stability in near-term projections, with minor adjustments indicating a cautious outlook.

The Focus Readout also details projections for public accounts and external balances.

Net public sector debt for 2026 is projected at 69.82 percent of GDP, a marginal increase from four weeks prior, rising to 73.44 percent for 2027.

The primary result for 2026 remains stable at -0.50 percent of GDP, while the nominal result is forecast at -8.70 percent, a slight deterioration.

External accounts show the current account deficit for 2026 at -60.25 billion US dollars, a slight widening.

The trade balance for 2026 holds steady at 76.20 billion US dollars, and Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) is maintained at 75.00 billion US dollars, reflecting consistent investor confidence.