Inflation expectations for 2026 fall to 4.90 percent

The median expectation for the 2026 IPCA inflation rate declined for the third consecutive week to 4.90 percent, down from 5.00 percent the prior week and 5.02 percent a month ago, based on 147 institutions surveyed.

Over the latest five working days, the median stood at 4.95 percent.

Economic growth estimates for 2026 deteriorated slightly to 1.89 percent from 1.93 percent the previous week and 1.98 percent four weeks earlier.

The projected year-end Selic rate held firm at 13.75 percent for the sixth week across 143 respondents, while the five-day average fell to 13.56 percent.

Expectations for the exchange rate remained stable at 5.20 reais per dollar for the thirteenth consecutive week.

For 2027, survey respondents raised IPCA inflation projections to 4.30 percent from 4.29 percent while cutting GDP growth to 1.45 percent.

The year-end Selic forecast for 2027 stood at 12.00 percent, followed by 10.50 percent in 2028 and 10.00 percent in 2029.

The smoothed 12-month inflation measure rose to 4.65 percent from 4.60 percent.

Survey medians place net public debt at 70.00 percent of GDP for 2026 and 73.70 percent for 2027, with the primary deficit projected at 0.45 percent of GDP.