Brazil growth forecasts fall as 2027 inflation estimate rises
Brazil's 2026 GDP growth forecast fell to 1.83 percent in the Central Bank of Brazil's October 16, 2026 Focus survey. The 2027 inflation median rose to 4.32 percent, while the 2026 Selic forecast held at 13.25 percent.
Less growth across three years
Respondents lowered GDP growth medians for 2026, 2027 and 2028 to 1.83, 1.32 and 1.81 percent, from 1.85, 1.40 and 1.83 percent a week earlier.
The 2029 forecast stayed at 2.00 percent.
IPCA inflation medians for those four years stood at 5.22, 4.32, 3.75 and 3.50 percent: unchanged for 2026 and 2029, higher for 2027 and lower for 2028.
Selic target medians remained at 13.25, 12.00, 10.50 and 10.00 percent.
Exchange-rate forecasts fell to R$5.13, R$5.22 and R$5.29 per US dollar for 2026–2028; 2029 held at R$5.30. Smoothed next-12-month IPCA inflation rose from 4.48 to 4.51 percent.
The equivalent IGP-M forecast fell from 4.59 to 4.34 percent, its sixth consecutive weekly decline.
Debt rises despite larger surpluses
Net public sector debt medians rose for all four years, reaching 70.10, 74.00, 76.70 and 79.13 percent of GDP for 2026–2029.
The 2026 primary deficit forecast widened from 0.41 to 0.48 percent of GDP; the nominal deficit widened from 8.87 to 8.90 percent.
Trade surplus forecasts increased to $80.15 billion, $79.70 billion, $81.31 billion and $83.42 billion.
Current-account deficit medians were $60.00 billion, $59.35 billion, $64.93 billion and $62.63 billion.
Foreign direct investment medians stood at $80.00 billion in each year.
Forecasts, not policy commitments
The readout reports respondent medians, not central bank policy decisions.
October and November IPCA forecasts fell to 0.32 and 0.34 percent, while December held at 0.56 percent.
The survey distinguishes responses over 30 days from estimates submitted in the latest five business days.
Source: BCB - Focus Market Readout - 10/16/2026
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