2026 inflation forecast falls to 5.19 percent as growth weakens
Market respondents cut Brazil's 2026 inflation forecast to 5.19 percent and GDP growth to 1.80 percent in the Central Bank of Brazil (BCB) Focus Market Readout dated October 23, 2026.
Lower growth across two years
Median IPCA inflation forecasts for 2026 fell from 5.22 to 5.19 percent over the week, while 2027 rose from 4.32 to 4.34 percent.
Forecasts for 2028 and 2029 held at 3.75 and 3.50 percent.
GDP growth estimates fell from 1.83 to 1.80 percent for 2026 and from 1.32 to 1.31 percent for 2027; 2028 and 2029 remained at 1.81 and 2.00 percent.
The 2026 Selic target forecast held at 13.25 percent.
Respondents lowered 2027 from 12.00 to 11.75 percent and 2028 from 10.50 to 10.00 percent, matching 2029.
Exchange-rate medians fell to R$5.05, R$5.15, R$5.20 and R$5.28 per US dollar for 2026–2029, respectively, from R$5.13, R$5.22, R$5.29 and R$5.30 a week earlier.
Near-term prices diverge
Monthly IPCA forecasts fell to 0.28 percent for October and 0.33 percent for November but rose to 0.58 percent for December.
Smoothed 12-month inflation rose from 4.51 to 4.53 percent.
The 2026 IGP-M forecast rose from 5.26 to 5.61 percent.
Primary balances for 2026–2029 stood at -0.48, -0.30, 0.00 and 0.10 percent of GDP; net public sector debt stood at 70.10, 74.00, 76.60 and 79.13 percent.
The survey reports aggregate medians and separately identifies forecasts updated within five business days.
Disinflation remains uneven
The lower 2026 inflation median contrasts with higher forecasts for 2027 and the smoothed next 12 months.
Respondents also reduced the 2027 and 2028 Selic forecasts while lowering near-term growth estimates.
These are market projections, not BCB policy decisions.
Source: BCB - Focus Market Readout - 10/23/2026
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