Brazil's 2027 inflation forecast rises to 4.90 percent
Market respondents to the Central Bank of Brazil's Focus survey raised their 2027 inflation forecast to 4.90 percent from 4.76 percent. They lowered projected GDP growth for 2027 to 1.15 percent and raised the end-2026 Selic forecast to 13.75 percent.
Higher inflation meets weaker growth
The November 6, 2026 survey put IPCA inflation at 5.22 percent for 2026, unchanged over the week.
The 2027 forecast rose for a fourth week; projections for 2028 and 2029 stood at 4.00 percent each.
GDP growth forecasts fell for a fourth week to 1.75 percent for 2026 and 1.15 percent for 2027, while 2028 and 2029 remained at 1.80 and 2.00 percent.
The end-2026 Selic median rose from 13.50 to 13.75 percent; forecasts for 2027–2029 held at 12.50, 11.00 and 10.25 percent.
Exchange-rate medians were R$5.35, R$5.40, R$5.45 and R$5.50 per dollar for 2026–2029.
Smoothed next-12-month IPCA inflation rose from 4.96 to 5.01 percent, its fourth weekly increase.
Monthly IPCA medians held at 0.27 percent for October, 0.35 percent for November and 0.60 percent for December 2026.
Debt rises across the horizon
Net public sector debt medians for 2026–2029 were 70.20, 74.30, 77.38 and 79.94 percent of GDP.
Primary deficit forecasts were 0.50, 0.40, 0.20 and 0.10 percent of GDP; nominal deficits were 8.97, 8.50, 8.00 and 7.53 percent.
Current-account deficits were $60.00, $59.30, $64.48 and $62.59 billion.
Trade surpluses were $80.00, $79.84, $83.17 and $85.30 billion, with direct investment at $85.00 billion in 2026 and $80.00 billion annually thereafter.
IGP-M inflation medians were 6.10, 4.20, 4.00 and 3.90 percent; regulated-price inflation was 4.77, 4.50, 3.94 and 3.70 percent.
Forecasts, not rate decisions
The higher Selic median records respondents' projections, not a central bank rate decision.
Among forecasts updated in the last five business days, 2027 IPCA inflation was 4.99 percent, above the aggregate median of 4.90 percent.
That recent-update measure put 2027 GDP growth at 1.00 percent.
Source: BCB - Focus Market Readout - 11/06/2026
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