Monthly inflation slows to 1.9 percent as money demand recovers
Argentina’s monthly inflation averaged 1.9 percent in the third quarter, the Central Bank of Argentina (BCRA) reported. The bank maintained monetary aggregate control while buying $3.4 billion in foreign currency and accommodating recovering money demand.
Disinflation accompanies reserve purchases
Average monthly inflation fell 0.3 percentage points from the second quarter, while annual inflation rose 0.5 points to 33.6 percent through base effects.
Underlying inflation averaged 2.0 percent monthly; regulated prices rose 2.2 percent.
Survey respondents projected annual inflation of 30.0 percent in December 2026, 21.2 percent in 2027 and 15.0 percent in 2028.
The BCRA bought $3.4 billion in foreign currency during the quarter, bringing purchases above $15.8 billion for the year.
Reserves increased $1.222 billion quarterly and approximately $9.4 billion through October 26. The monetary base grew 1.4 percent monthly in real, seasonally adjusted terms; private transactional M2 grew 0.7 percent.
The bank plans to match money supply to recovering demand, prioritizing foreign currency purchases.
Credit expands as output contracts
GDP fell 0.6 percent quarter on quarter in Q2 but grew 2.0 percent annually.
Survey respondents projected 1.5 percent growth in 2026 and 2.5 percent in 2027.
Private credit grew 0.6 percent monthly in real, seasonally adjusted terms in Q3; September loan delinquency was 7.5 percent overall and 12.2 percent for households.
Pending charter legislation would make currency preservation the BCRA’s sole mandate, prohibit public-sector financing, restrict profit distributions to realized, liquid earnings and require binding congressional involvement in removing its leadership.
Money growth has conditions
The BCRA says monetary expansion must follow genuine demand rather than precede it.
It identifies energy prices, beef seasonality and gas subsidy reductions as risks to further disinflation.
The bank also states that charter reform would legally constrain Treasury financing without replacing fiscal discipline.