Deputy Governor assesses geopolitical, banking risks
The Banco de España Deputy Governor assessed the geopolitical situation and its impact on the banking sector on April 15, 2026. The presentation highlighted significant energy price shocks and the resilience of the Spanish banking system.
Geopolitical tremors and economic outlook
The Deputy Governor highlighted a significant energy price shock, comparable to severe historical crises, with increased volatility following the Iran attack.
Market expectations, however, anticipate a gradual decrease in energy prices.
The blockade of the Strait of Ormuz, which impacts approximately 20 percent of global oil production and LNG exports, poses a substantial risk to global supply chains.
Scenarios presented project negative impacts on GDP and inflation for both the Euro Area and Spain, with particularly severe supply shocks affecting key inputs like oil, gas, fertilizers, food, and semiconductors.
The most affected sectors in Spain represent about 10 percent of GDP.
Spanish banks show robust health
The Spanish banking sector demonstrates robust profitability, with ROE at 14.3% in December 2025, and maintains capital and liquidity ratios well above regulatory requirements.
Non-performing loans continue to decline for both households and businesses, reaching 2.8% in December 2025.
Credit growth in Spain, at 3.6% in 2025, has surpassed the Euro Area average without showing signs of alarm or increased concentration in high-risk corporate debtors.
Direct exposure to the Middle East is limited, but indirect channels are considered potentially dominant.
Real estate risks are contained at 2001 levels, suggesting low systemic risk.