Second-quarter French GDP growth estimated at 0.2 percent
The Banque de France estimates second-quarter GDP growth at 0.2 percent following a June rebound across manufacturing, services, and construction. Surveying 8,500 business leaders, the central bank noted easing price pressures and lower uncertainty.
Industrial momentum and thermal adjustments
Industrial activity in France picked up strongly in June, driven by technology, defense, and a catch-up effect in automotive manufacturing following May holiday closures.
The production capacity utilization rate held steady at 76.8 percent, with notable gains in electrical equipment and aeronautics.
Market services and construction also recovered, despite a severe heatwave in late June that forced businesses to adjust working hours while spurring demand for cooling systems.
Based on responses from 8,500 companies, the Banque de France projects second-quarter GDP expansion of 0.2 percent, up from a 0.1 percent contraction in the previous quarter.
Cooling prices and fading uncertainty
Supply bottlenecks continued to ease across most industries, although 36 percent of computer and electronics firms still report severe component shortages.
Corporate selling price increases moderated further in June, while raw material price inflation abated.
The central bank's uncertainty indicator fell back to levels recorded before the Middle East conflict, even as executives remain concerned about international trade risks.
Meanwhile, recruitment difficulties edged up to 18 percent of firms, led by a 26 percent rate in construction.
A fragile recovery on thin margins
The modest 0.2 percent growth offers welcome relief after a sluggish start to the year.
However, persistent labor shortages and construction weakness signal that underlying momentum remains fragile.
Without stronger private demand, France risks remaining trapped in low-growth territory.
Source: Monthly Business Survey – Start of July 2026
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