Refining strains drive 60 percent of France's fuel price rise
Refining pressures accounted for nearly 60 percent of France's petroleum product price rise from February to August 2026. Banque de France authors Laurence Coursieras, Alexandre Ménard and Camille Thubin reported the estimate on October 13, 2026.
Crude oil is only part
French petroleum product prices rose around 26 percent between February and August 2026.
Higher crack spreads contributed around 15 percentage points, equivalent to 7 percentage points of energy inflation and 0.6 percentage point of overall consumer inflation.
Crack spreads measure refined product prices minus crude prices; refining margins also deduct freight and insurance costs.
The calculation separates Brent, spreads, distribution margins and taxation.
It uses INSEE weights of 44.7 percent for petrol, 49.3 percent for road diesel and 6.0 percent for heating oil.
Refining pressures became the largest contributor in June.
The Strait of Hormuz closure following the February 28 US-Iran conflict and Ukrainian attacks on Russian infrastructure restricted supplies.
Missing barrels widen the gap
The International Energy Agency puts March-August refining shortfalls versus 2025 at 2.3, 5.1, 4.2, 6.0, 4.7 and 4.2 million barrels daily: 810 million barrels in total, averaging 4.4 million daily, around 4 percent of global consumption.
Bloomberg data put Northwest European diesel spreads near $50 a barrel in April-June and above $70 in July.
Petrol spreads were negative in April, then $23, $26 and $40 in May-July.
Kerosene spreads exceeded $45 in June and reached $67 in July.
From late April to late June, Brent fell $51 a barrel but petrol fell only $25; petrol spreads more than tripled.
Brent cannot explain everything
The authors identify refining capacity as a separate inflation driver, not a reversal of France's declining sensitivity to crude prices.
They note that infrastructure repairs can take months after oil flows normalize.
Their direct estimate excludes kerosene's potential delayed effect on airfares.