Italian house prices up, but demand and outlook weaken

In Q1 2026, indications of rising house prices intensified across Italy, with the balance of positive over negative judgments reaching 12 percentage points, up from 9 in the previous quarter.

This positive trend was observed in all macro-areas, most notably in the North-East (17 points) and Center (13 points).

Average discount margins on asking prices and selling times slightly decreased, returning to historically low levels seen in Q1 2025.

Discounts were particularly contained in the North-East (5 points) but remained highest in the South and Islands.

The share of agencies completing at least one sale was 87 percent, a slight decrease from the previous quarter.

The balance of sales judgments deteriorated to -19 percentage points, indicating a more pronounced decline in transactions compared to a year ago, especially in major urban areas.

Mortgage-financed purchases remained stable at 65 percent, with the loan-to-value ratio around 77 percent.

Access to credit conditions remained relaxed, with only 17 percent of agencies citing credit access difficulties as a reason for mandate termination.

Housing demand weakened in Q1 2026 compared to the previous quarter, with the balance of potential buyers deteriorating significantly to -15 percentage points from -5 in Q4 2025.

Supply remained limited, as new listings to sell continued to fall, with a balance of -28 points, largely in line with previous quarters.

The stock of unfulfilled mandates remained very negative.

Rental prices continued to grow, but at significantly slower rates than previous quarters, with the balance of rental price judgments at 31 percentage points.

This deceleration was more pronounced in urban areas, particularly in the North-East and Center.

Over 50 percent of agencies perceive short-term rentals as relevant, with 88 percent indicating upward pressure on long-term rental prices, and 60 percent seeing this impact as particularly relevant.