Inventories cushioned a 12 million barrel daily Hormuz shortfall
Inventories and emergency releases limited price increases despite the Hormuz supply disruption, according to a Bank of Italy paper published October 13, 2026. Its analysis covers February 28–June 30, 2026, not the subsequent course of the conflict.
Stocks absorbed the missing barrels
Alessandro D'Orazio, Simone Emiliozzi, Fabrizio Ferriani, Andrea Gazzani, Marco Taboga and Giovanni Veronese document the energy shock from the Iran–Israel–United States conflict.
Hormuz normally carries around 20 million barrels daily; disrupted flows left a net shortfall of around 12 million.
Brent rose from $72 per barrel to almost $120. High pre-war inventories, weaker demand and alternative supplies limited price increases.
On March 11, the International Energy Agency (IEA) announced emergency releases of almost 400 million barrels: 273.5 million crude and around 125 million products.
Alternative Gulf pipelines carried around 5 million barrels daily.
China's net seaborne oil imports fell from roughly 9 million to 3 million barrels daily; US net exports increased by almost 3 million.
Asia's shortage reached European gas
Global LNG exports fell from about 48 billion cubic meters in February to 41–43 billion monthly in April–June.
Damage affected around 15 percent of Qatar's Ras Laffan liquefaction capacity, limiting recovery even after navigation resumes.
By March 6, Asian JKM prices rose approximately 80 percent to €56/MWh, European TTF 70 percent to €53/MWh and US Henry Hub 13 percent to €14/MWh.
Competition for replacement cargoes transmitted Asia's shortage to Europe.
EU storage was around 50 percent full at end-June.
The June 14 US–Iran agreement eased prices but did not restore normal flows.
Relief can weaken adjustment
EU fiscal measures adopted by May 4 totaled €14.5 billion, or about 0.07 percent of GDP.
The authors note that predominantly untargeted fuel-tax cuts weakened price incentives to conserve energy.
They recommend temporary, targeted support and stress that inventory buffers cannot absorb a prolonged disruption indefinitely.