Electric vehicles displaced 14 percent of China's gasoline use in 2025
Electric vehicle adoption displaced about 0.46 million barrels per day of Chinese gasoline demand in 2025, Bank of Italy researchers estimate. That equals roughly 14 percent of observed consumption and 62 million tonnes of avoided direct CO2 emissions.
Sales race ahead of stocks
Lorenzo Bencivelli, Alessandro D'Orazio, Simone Emiliozzi and Andrea Gazzani use annual fleet accounting to isolate how electrification changes gasoline demand.
Their 2015–2025 counterfactual removes EV adoption while retaining observed total car sales and gasoline use per combustion-engine car.
China's gasoline consumption fell from 3.55 million barrels per day in 2024 to 3.42 million in 2025.
EVs reached 53 percent of new sales in 2025 but only around 14 percent of the fleet, or 44 million cars.
Under the projections, demand declines persistently from 2027 with medium or fast adoption and around 2028 with slow adoption.
The baseline holds the EV sales share at 53 percent and produces rising gasoline consumption through 2040.
Three routes to lower demand
By 2030, EV sales shares reach 75, 87 and 100 percent under slow, medium and fast adoption.
By 2040, gasoline demand reaches 2.8, 2.7 and 2.6 million barrels per day, respectively, versus 4.0 million under constant adoption.
Annual savings reach 1.2–1.45 million barrels per day, equivalent to 162–196 million tonnes of direct CO2 emissions.
The fleet approaches 520 million cars; EV shares reach 52, 55 and 58 percent, versus about one third in the baseline.
Projections hold gasoline use per combustion-engine car at its 2025 level.
Gasoline is not all oil
The authors distinguish a gasoline peak from a peak in total oil demand, since freight, aviation and petrochemicals follow different paths.
Their estimates isolate fleet composition rather than comprehensive causal effects.
They do not separately model plug-in hybrids' gasoline use or measure lifecycle emissions.