Italy's Countercyclical Capital Buffer rate held at zero for Q2 2026
Banca d'Italia has maintained the Countercyclical Capital Buffer (CCyB) rate at zero percent for the second quarter of 2026. The decision reflects the central bank's assessment of the current macrofinancial context.
Macrofinancial stability underpins zero rate
In the fourth quarter of 2025, the total credit-to-GDP gap, calculated using Banca d'Italia's methodology, remained negative at approximately 7 percentage points.
This indicates a continued need for caution despite gradual improvements.
The flow of bank lending to the private sector continues to improve, while the overall non-performing loan (NPL) ratio remains at historically low levels.
The unemployment rate also stands at an historical low, reflecting a resilient labor market.
However, real house prices and the price gap increased in the third quarter of 2025 compared to the previous quarter, suggesting some areas warrant ongoing monitoring.
Banca d'Italia deems the zero percent CCyB rate appropriate given these mixed but generally stable macrofinancial conditions, particularly concerning exposures to Italian counterparties.
Refining the credit cycle measurement
The Countercyclical Capital Buffer rate is primarily guided by the credit-to-GDP gap, which measures the deviation of total credit to the non-financial private sector from its long-term trend.
While European legislation identifies the standard methodology recommended by the Basel Committee, Banca d'Italia employs an adjusted filter.
This non-standard approach addresses issues with the traditional Hodrick-Prescott filter, which tends to systematically revise real-time estimates downwards and suggests unrealistically long expansionary phases in Italy.
The Banca d'Italia's adjusted filter provides more stable and accurate real-time estimates of the credit cycle, reducing estimated volatility.