AI investment surge complicates central bank policy calibration

The global artificial intelligence boom is driving a massive investment surge, with spending on data centres and specialised chips reaching up to 1 percent of GDP in exposed economies like the United States and Australia.

Global AI infrastructure investments are projected to scale from 500 billion dollars today to 3 to 4 trillion dollars by 2030.

This capital expenditure increasingly relies on private credit and bond markets, as free cash flows shrink.

Simultaneously, trade data shows that goods with high AI content are recording the fastest export growth, delivering sizeable terms-of-trade gains for upstream semiconductor exporters such as Korea, Chinese Taipei, Malaysia, and Singapore, while raising costs for digital infrastructure importers.

While generative AI promises long-term productivity gains, its near-term macroeconomic impact remains highly uncertain.

Early labour market data reveals emerging divergence, with employment growth in high AI-exposure US sectors trailing low-exposure sectors by 0.8 percentage points between late 2023 and 2025.

Furthermore, countries with high AI preparedness experienced average unemployment rate increases of 0.75 percentage points, pointing to potential skills mismatches and transitional frictions as firms increasingly signal intent to automate production processes.