Global real house prices fall 1.2 percent in first quarter
Aggregated global residential property prices adjusted for inflation declined by 1.2 percent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026. Data from the Bank for International Settlements shows the downturn accelerated from 0.5 percent in late 2025, led by slumps in China and Canada.
Heavyweights tilt the aggregate downward
Real house price growth showed substantial divergence across regions in the first quarter of 2026.
Emerging market economies posted a 2.0 percent real decline, pulled down by a 4.3 percent drop in Asia, where Chinese prices dropped 7 percent and Indonesian valuations fell 3 percent.
Conversely, Latin America expanded 5.0 percent, led by Brazil at 5 percent and Mexico at 4 percent.
Advanced economies registered a 0.2 percent decline, marking their first contraction since the third quarter of 2024.
Within advanced markets, Canadian prices fell 7 percent while the United States and the United Kingdom each slipped 2 percent.
Euro area prices grew 2.6 percent, with Spain rising 10 percent and Italy up 4 percent, despite 1 percent declines in Germany and France.
Two decades of widening divergence
Aggregate figures masked national resilience, as median real growth rose from 2.3 percent to 2.6 percent.
Only one-third of advanced economies and one-quarter of emerging markets saw outright annual price drops.
Long-term trends highlight widening structural gaps.
Since the end of the 2008 financial crisis, real global property values rose 20 percent, led by Türkiye at 117 percent, India at 62 percent, and the United States at 56 percent, while Italy and China remain 24 percent and 15 percent below post-crisis levels.
Deceptive aggregates, localized strain
The global real housing slump is an artifact of a few heavyweights rather than a synchronized worldwide bust.
Deep contractions in China and Canada skew the aggregate, while most domestic markets remain resilient.
Treating this as a uniform housing crisis misreads where real systemic risks lie.