Pyshnyy urges central banks to prepare for existential shocks
National Bank of Ukraine Governor Andriy Pyshnyy called on central banks to adapt to existential shocks and non-marginal disruptions at the joint research conference with Narodowy Bank Polski on September 21, 2026.
Beyond marginal baseline shocks
Governor Andriy Pyshnyy proposed adding “existential, or system-altering, shocks” to the analytical vocabulary of central banks.
Speaking on day 1,672 of Russia's full-scale invasion, he noted that extreme disruptions operate through thresholds and discontinuities rather than marginal baseline adjustments.
Ukraine maintained operational payment systems, avoided foreign exchange crises, and recorded sustained credit growth despite air defence forces neutralizing over 140,000 aerial targets.
Pyshnyy emphasized that while tools and operational procedures must remain flexible under pressure, a central bank’s core mandate, institutional independence, and public accountability must serve as permanent anchors.
Sovereignty built on cooperation
The speech coincided with the 30th anniversary of Ukraine's monetary reform and the introduction of the hryvnia, whose initial banknotes arrived in 1992 via 105 shipping containers from Canada under Operation Shield of Ukraine.
Pyshnyy highlighted international partnerships as vital to sovereignty, pointing to Narodowy Bank Polski's foreign exchange swap launched on February 24, 2022.
He also urged policymakers to view economic risks through a systemic lens rather than isolated indicators.
Beyond decimal-point models
Pyshnyy delivers a necessary warning against central banks' fixation on decimal-point modeling.
Yet treating existential geopolitical threats as monetary shocks risks mandate creep if boundaries blur.
Wartime resilience offers vital operational lessons, but disciplined focus remains the ultimate policy anchor.
Source: Changing without losing sight of the goal
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