Climate shocks threaten 1 percent EU GDP loss, Sleijpen warns
At the Sustainable Finance Summit on October 1, 2026, NGFS Chair Olaf Sleijpen stated that climate shocks directly impact growth and price stability. He cited estimates that summer weather extremes could reduce European Union GDP by 1 percent, or €180 billion.
The price tag of extreme heat
Sleijpen detailed immediate macroeconomic damage across Europe, pointing to sectoral data on agricultural and industrial disruption.
Europe lost nearly 9 million tonnes of grain crops due to summer heat, representing a financial loss of approximately €2 billion, according to industry group Coceral.
Adverse weather is projected to add over 1 percentage point to food inflation next year based on Oxford Economics calculations, while Allianz Research estimates hourly output drops by 3 percent per additional degree between 30 and 35 degrees Celsius.
Overall, combined weather effects could reduce European Union gross domestic product by around 1 percent, or roughly €180 billion.
“It is no longer possible to deny the economic impact of climate change,” Sleijpen stated.
Thirty-one disasters, doubling damages
The Network for Greening the Financial System, now comprising over 150 central banks and supervisors, examined 31 extreme weather events between 2021 and 2025 for the French G7 Presidency.
Across those cases, gross domestic product losses reached up to 50 percent and inflation increased by up to 17 percentage points, hitting emerging economies hardest.
In 2025, damages exceeded $200 billion, double the annual average of the 2000s.
Sleijpen stressed that scenario analysis confirms transition costs remain far below the price of policy inaction.
Compelling data, unresolved mandates
Sleijpen convincingly grounds climate risks in balance-sheet reality rather than moral appeals.
Yet cataloging extreme weather losses does not solve the tension of central banks acting where elected governments stall.
Without binding fiscal policies, scenario tools will merely document volatility rather than prevent it.