Home attachment drives US internal migration decline

A new study reveals that the declining trend in U.S. internal migration is primarily driven by increasing home attachment in "fast locations," areas characterized by high population turnover. This phenomenon has led to a fundamental shift in human capital allocation.

The rootedness of fast locations

The paper identifies increasing home attachment in "fast locations"—areas with historically high population turnover—as the primary cause for the declining internal migration in the United States.

These fast locations, predominantly in the West, served as major population growth destinations in the 20th century, attracting transient populations.

As the pace of regional population shifts abated in recent decades, more individuals developed deeper roots, leading to a decrease in population turnover.

This decline in mobility is pervasive across demographic strata and housing tenures, suggesting a fundamental shift in human capital allocation.

Policymakers are concerned as migration is a primary labor market adjustment mechanism, leading to questions about whether "America has lost its mojo.

"

Modeling home bias and migration costs

The researchers develop a discrete choice model of location selection, where agents' decisions are influenced by location quality, individual home preference, and moving costs.

The empirical strategy rigorously quantifies the contribution of home attachment, distinguishing it from generic moving costs.

A novel measure of home attachment, based on the probability of a birth cohort having locally based parents, is introduced to capture the intensity of local ties.

Simulations of the model show that rising home attachment accounts for a significant portion of the mobility decline, predominantly in fast locations.

Population aging explains most of the remaining decline, though in a more spatially neutral manner, with both factors interacting to generate a larger overall reduction in migration.

A double-edged sword for dynamism

The findings present mixed normative implications for the U.S. economy.

While increased home attachment suggests individuals are optimally staying put, enjoying social connections, it also implies a less nimble economy.

This reduced mobility could exacerbate cyclical fluctuations and lead to misallocation if necessary population shifts are hindered by high entry costs to productive areas.