Uganda targets $500 billion GDP by 2040 with market reforms
The Bank of Uganda has outlined a financial market roadmap to support expanding the economy to $500 billion by 2040. Speaking to market dealers, central bank officials highlighted rising money market and secondary bond turnover alongside ongoing benchmark reforms.
Yield curves and swap volumes expand
Ugandan financial markets recorded higher liquidity in FY2025/26, with unsecured money market turnover rising to UGX 70 trillion from UGX 60 trillion.
Secondary market turnover climbed to UGX 125 trillion from UGX 91 trillion, supported by the rollout of a 25-year Treasury bond.
Foreign exchange activity expanded as average daily spot turnover surpassed $150 million, while FX swap volume reached UGX 100 trillion and the central bank facility provided $768 million.
The Bank of Uganda is publishing an FX Swap Curve and developing a Risk-Based Credit Pricing Model, alongside executed ISDA Master Agreements and inclusion on the BIS Global FX Code Register.
From fifty to five hundred billion
The market reforms underpin Uganda’s Tenfold Growth Strategy, which aims to lift gross domestic product from $50 billion in 2023 to $500 billion by 2040.
Key target sectors include agro-industry, tourism, oil and gas, and technology, which together represent $231 billion in projected output.
Macroeconomic fundamentals remain stable: preliminary FY2025/26 real GDP growth reached 6.4 percent, with annual headline inflation at 4.0 percent and core inflation at 3.4 percent, below the 5.0 percent target.
Capital plumbing alone is insufficient
A tenfold GDP increase by 2040 requires capital far exceeding Uganda's current market capacity.
Modernizing swap curves and bond tenors builds infrastructure, yet bank lending remains locked in short horizons.
Without broader corporate bond markets, sovereign debt will continue to crowd out enterprise financing.