Statistical challenges in geoeconomic fragmentation
Fritzi Köhler-Geib, speaking at the External Statistics Conference, emphasized the critical role of high-quality external statistics in an era of increasing geoeconomic fragmentation. She highlighted the need for reliable, objective data to support sound policy and international cooperation.
Geoeconomic shifts and data gaps
Köhler-Geib outlined the current environment, characterized by exceptionally high economic policy uncertainty and a focus on geoeconomic fragmentation.
Defined as a reduction in economic integration and multilateral cooperation, aligned with geopolitical preferences, this fragmentation impacts global commerce by dampening imports, raising costs, and disrupting supply chains, as confirmed by Bundesbank research.
Bundesbank studies also show that hybrid threats amplify uncertainty and tighten financial conditions, while geopolitical factors already affect portfolio and other investments.
A fundamental obstacle to understanding these effects is the existence of large bilateral asymmetries in external statistics.
A prominent example is the euro area's current account vis-à-vis the United States, where discrepancies of around €66 billion were observed in 2025, with ECB and US BEA data showing opposite directions for trade balances.
These asymmetries complicate global surveillance and policy analysis, raising questions about data reliability and hindering country-specific analyses related to issues like tariff debates.
Bridging the data divide
The speaker stressed that if external trade is to be properly understood, more consistent data is needed, calling for determined efforts to reduce asymmetries.
Europe provides an example with good work in statistical coordination networks and asymmetry resolution mechanisms, though these are difficult to transfer globally.
International efforts are also underway, including new databases at the OECD and IMF providing overviews of bilateral asymmetries, and promising work by BOPCOM's Task Team on Global Asymmetries.
The IMF's Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual Version 7 (BPM 7), published in March 2025, introduces breakdowns of nonfinancial and financial corporations based on control, offering valuable data for asymmetry reduction.
A concrete proposal is to include a dedicated recommendation on asymmetry reduction and its monitoring in the next G20 Data Gaps Initiative, fostering bilateral discussions between statistical producers.
The digital data imperative
Official statistics face a critical dilemma: balancing quality with the speed and user-friendliness of new data sources.
While initiatives like StatGPT are promising, accelerating data provision without compromising accuracy remains the core challenge.
Central bank statistics' future relevance depends on swift adaptation to evolving demands, securing their role as a trusted public good.