Elderson warns climate and nature risks disrupt Europe's economy
Climate change and nature degradation are economic certainties amid wider uncertainty, European Central Bank (ECB) Executive Board member Frank Elderson said in a keynote published on October 20, 2026.
Heat strains Europe's economic networks
Western Europe recorded its warmest summer in 2026, Elderson said, citing severe droughts, wildfires, water scarcity and pressure on ecosystems.
Exceptionally low water levels in major European rivers affected transport, industry and energy production.
Fires destroyed large areas of land, while economic sectors faced disruptions.
Europe is warming at more than twice the global average, faster than any other continent.
Tens of thousands of excess deaths during the summer months were linked to extreme heat.
Elderson presented these developments as tangible consequences of climate change and nature degradation for economies and societies.
Manila keynote frames persistent risks
The speech context identifies the Green Swan 2026 Conference in Manila on October 19, 2026, as the venue for Elderson's keynote.
Alongside his Executive Board position, he serves as Vice-Chair of the ECB's Supervisory Board.
He contrasted economic, geopolitical and technological uncertainty with the certainty of continuing climate change and nature degradation.
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) published the speech with a disclaimer that his views do not necessarily reflect those of the BIS.
Physical risks reach economic activity
Elderson links environmental damage directly to transport, industry and energy production.
His examples place physical climate risks within current economic activity, not solely future scenarios.
He says economies and societies must deal with the consequences.